In Poland's October 2007 election, the liberal Civic Platform Party scored a stunning victory over President Kaczynski's incumbent, conservative Law and Justice Party.

Official results from the October 21, 2007 Polish Parliamentary election indicate that liberal opposition party Civic Platform (PO) scored a stunning victory over the conservative ruling Law and Justice Party (PIS). Donald Tusk, leader of pro-business Civic Platform, is expected to become Poland’s new Prime Minister.

Voting Results

• Civic Platform (PO) - 41.5%
• Law and Justice Party (PIS) - 32.1%
• Left and Democrats (LiD) - 13.2%
• Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL) - 8.9%
• Self-Defense - 1.5%
• League of Polish Families (LPR) - 1.3%
• Others - 1.5%

New Majority Coalition

Tusk has confirmed reaching an agreement with Waldemar Pawlak, leader of the Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL), to form a coalition government. Details of ministerial shares have yet to be finalized, but Tusk indicated PSL would likely receive three posts: economy, agriculture, and either the environment or labor ministry.

New Structure of Parliament

Poland’s election laws require political parties to reach a threshold of at least 5% of the vote to gain seats in the lower house of Parliament (Sejm). Falling short of this threshold were Law and Justice’s junior coalition partners Self-Defense and League of Polish Families.

The election results indicate the new alliance between the Civic Platform and Polish Peasants’ parties will hold a combined 240 seats in the 460-seat Sejm. The structure of Parliament, by Party, will be (with number of seats):

• Civic Platform Party - 209
• Law and Justice Party - 166
• Left and Democrats - 53
• Polish Peasants’ Party - 31
• German Minority - 1

Election Analysis

A record turnout of over 50% of registered voters participated in the election. Polish citizens showed their obvious displeasure with outgoing Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s conservative government. Kaczynski is the twin brother of President Lech Kaczynski, who does not face re-election until 2010.

The election was called two years early after the Prime Minister’s governing coalition collapsed over a corruption probe and disagreements over domestic and foreign affairs.

During their time in power, the Law and Justice Party pursued relations with former communists and adopted a skeptical approach toward the European Union (EU). Civic Platform’s election promises include repairing Poland’s currently poor relations with Germany and other EU neighbors. Civic Platform also vowed to withdraw 900 Polish troops from Iraq, which may cause some difficulties with their desire to seek stronger ties with the United States.

President Kaczynski had remained silent for over a week before finally acknowledging the election results and admitting defeat. His remarks were made during a late October interview with Poland’s daily newspaper, Rzeczpospolita.

The President is obviously hurt by his party’s loss and the ouster of his brother from government. He withheld congratulations to Civic Platform and their liberal leader, complaining that Tusk had made offensive remarks against him. To be effective in the new government, Kaczynski will need to put his personal feelings aside, as the new coalition will have enough votes in Parliament to override any presidential vetoes.

Polish media rumors indicate Kaczynski may try to delay the creation of the new government to prevent parliamentary approval of the 2008 budget. A constitutional deadline requires the budget to be approved within four months of submittal, otherwise the President can recall parliament and order fresh parliamentary elections. The President’s Law and Justice party submitted the budget in late September, so if it is not approved by the end of January, Kaczynski could legally call for a new election.

References

“Official election results: PO - 41.5%, PIS - 32.1%.” Polish Market Review - Business Portal for Poland. October 29, 2007.

“Poland’s election winners reach deal on coalition.” Focus Information Agency. October 31, 2007.

“President Kaczynski finally speaks over loss.” New Europe. November 3, 2007.

Wittman, George. “New Team in Poland.” The American Spectator. November 2, 2007.